Cricket betting tips: Brisbane Heat versus Adelaide Strikers preview and best bets

Cricket betting tips: Big Bash – Brisbane Heat v Adelaide Strikers

0.5pt Michael Neser Man of the Match at 14/1 (General)

0.5pt Xavier Bartlett Man of the Match at 16/1 (General)

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The Big Bash Challenger sees a clash between two teams who have enjoyed completely different seasons, but who are both keenly eyeing a place in Wednesday’s final.

Brisbane Heat, beaten in the final 12 months ago, were the standout team of the regular season, only losing once in their final league match in Perth, before then making a mess of what appeared a relatively straightforward run chase against Sydney Sixers in the Qualifier.

Their opponents on Monday, Adelaide Strikers, have taken a markedly different route to this stage. Their early-season struggles made way for a late surge into the playoffs where, against all odds, they downed the mighty Perth Scorchers in the Knockout.

That they managed to win a knockout match in Perth without the injured Chris Lynn and a major contribution from the tournament’s leading runscorer, Matt Short, makes the achievement even more impressive.

It also makes predicting the Challenger even harder. With Lynn still injured and Adam Hose having left for the ILT20, the Strikers batting is heavily reliant on Short and the resurgent Jake Weatherald.

Heat bowling could prove key

The bowling looks in reasonable shape, and spin won the day in Perth as the impressive Cameron Boyce and Lloyd Pope did the damage.

The seamers don’t look as reliable, but I suspect the Strikers will bank on spin again. Short’s off spin is very handy, too, and he’ll probably bowl three of four overs.

Nevertheless, the Heat have the better bowling attack. In fact, it’s arguably the best in the competition, and they’ve yet to concede 170 or more this term.

They have spin covered, and in Michael Neser and Spencer Johnson, two of the best seamers in the tournament who complement each other very well. Johnson returned figures of 4-1-14-2 in the Qualifier and really deserved to be on the winning team.

If the Heat can make early inroads, just as they have done all season, they will rightly fancy their chances. And in truth, the wickets of Short and Weatherald could hold the key to the match.

But while their bowling is incisive and well-balanced, the Heat’s batting is a major concern.

Colin Munro and Sam Billings have left for the cash cow that is the ILT20, and with Matt Renshaw and Nathan McSweeney so far unable to match their obvious talent with runs, they have some holes to plug.

Jimmy Peirson’s return for the last couple of games has been welcome and long overdue, and he was an 11/2 winner for these pages when top scoring for the Heat against the Sixers.

With only one firm offering 9/2 this time around, we’ll leave him alone this time. Neser was considered in this market at number seven, but not at 16/1.

Short the big fish for the Strikers

We’ve been burnt with the aforementioned Short a couple of times this season, backing him to make a fifty twice but not landing the money – quite the achievement given Short has made six half-centuries from only 10 matches.

With some 10/3 knocking about, Short will lure plenty in again, but I’m not following him over a cliff at relatively prohibitive odds.

The other factor to consider is that the surface in Carrara didn’t look the easiest to bat on in either innings of the Qualifier, and had Moises Henriques not been dropped twice in the same over, the Sixers would have posted significantly less than the 152/8 they eventually managed batting first.

We’ll know more after a few overs, but I will be monitoring the innings runs lines very closely in-play and also be very cautious about either side chasing too big a score. If the ball darts around again, the seamers could be in business.

To that end, conditions could well tip the balance of power in the Heat’s favour, and I certainly hope so having tipped them at 9/1 to win the competition in my pre-tournament preview here.

What are the best bets?

Conditions should also bring the aforementioned MICHAEL NESER and XAVIER BARTLETT into the mix, and I’m going to back both to small stakes in the Man of the Match market.

Neser is an all-round class act who is capable of special things with bat, ball and in the field. When the Heat beat the Scorchers earlier in the campaign, they were indebted to Neser who cracked 64 not out from only 30 balls and took yet another screamer in the field.

With the ball, Neser has really found his groove of late, and his last three outings have seen him return figures of 2-31, 2-21 and 3-27.

As ever, he has been doing his damage with the new ball, and with the type of spells that can not only shape games but also put him firmly in the running for Man of the Match honours.

He gets the nod at 14/1, with Bartlett added to the staking plan.

Bartlett is a similar type of bowler to Neser, one who uses the new ball well and makes the most of conditions if there is anything there for the seamers.

He’s certainly been doing something right as he currently stands as the leading wicket-taker in this season’s competition, with 17 scalps at an average of 14.82.

Bartlett is already being talked up as a potential Australia cricketer of the future and while that would appear a way off yet, he continues to impress and is certainly making a name for himself.

Knocking over Short with the new ball in a big match like this would strengthen his case and might just help him win the Man of the Match gong, too.

Preview published at 1740 GMT on 21/01/24

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