Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner; Daniil Medvedev vs. Alexander Zverev: Australian Open men's semifinal previews ...

Medvedev comes in as the favorite. He’s the higher seed, he’s been to an Australian Open final twice before, he has an 11-7 record against Zverev, and he beat him six times in seven meetings in 2023—they certainly know each other’s games well. At the same time, those recent matches were close. One of Medvedev’s wins was 7-5 in the third set, another was 7-6 in the third; Zverev’s only victory, in Cincinnati, was 6-4 in the third.

Zverev admitted that Medvedev “has been kicking my ass” lately. But he also says he’s in a different place than he was in 2023. Last year, he was still recovering from a long injury layoff.

“A lot of the times it came down to him being extremely confident last year, him playing some of the best tennis of his life,” Zverev said of Medvedev, “and me coming back from injury and not having the confidence in deciding moments and not being able to finish matches.”

Medvedev is favored, but the match will probably reside on Zverev’s racquet. Against Alcaraz, he made 85 percent of his first serves and hit through the court with his ground strokes, rather than sitting back and rallying, the way he normally does. Can he keep that up? Will it work against a very different type of opponent? Medvedev is a master of defense, and won’t make as many errors as Alcaraz did.

I do think Zverev can keep it up. But while he will likely have raise to his level, Medvedev can stay closer to his comfort zone and still win. Winner: Medvedev