Bucks vs. Celtics game prediction, odds, line: 2022 NBA playoff picks, Game 3 bets from model on 86-58 run

The Milwaukee Bucks host the Boston Celtics for Game 3 of the Eastern Conference semifinals on Saturday afternoon in the 2022 NBA playoffs. Milwaukee won the series opener before Boston responded with a Game 2 victory at home. The Bucks have the next two games at home, putting pressure on the visiting Celtics. Khris Middleton (knee) is listed as out for Milwaukee, with George Hill (abdominal) listed as probable. Marcus Smart (thigh) is listed as probable for Boston.

Caesars Sportsbook lists Milwaukee as the two-point favorite at home for this 3:30 p.m. ET tip. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 211.5 in the latest Celtics vs. Bucks odds. Before making any Celtics vs. Bucks picks, you need to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters the third full week of the 2022 NBA playoffs on a stunning 86-58 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Bucks vs. Celtics, and just locked in its NBA playoff picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Celtics vs. Bucks:

• Celtics vs. Bucks spread: Bucks -2
• Celtics vs. Bucks over-under: 211.5 points
• Celtics vs. Bucks money line: Bucks -130, Celtics +110
• BOS: The Celtics are 4-2 against the spread in playoff games
• MIL: The Bucks are 4-3 against the spread in playoff games

Why the Celtics can cover

The Celtics have intriguing offensive potential. Boston is generating an assist on 74.2 percent of field goals in the series against the Bucks, an elite figure, and the Celtics are connecting on nearly 38 percent of 3-point attempts in the postseason. Boston was also a top-10 offense in the regular season, with a pair of star-level wings in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown who can create efficient shots. On the other end of the floor, Boston is unquestionably elite. 

The Celtics led the NBA in defensive efficiency, field goal percentage allowed, 3-point percentage allowed, 2-point percentage allowed and assists allowed during the marathon of the regular season. Boston is also thwarting Milwaukee's offense in holding the Bucks to less than 0.96 points per possession this season. The Celtics are adept at forcing missed shots, and Boston is keeping Milwaukee off the offensive glass with a 74.5 percent defensive rebound rate in the series. Boston also has various bodies to throw at Giannis Antetokounmpo, with Grant Williams, Al Horford, Tatum and Robert Williams III all operating at a very high level on the defensive end.

Why the Bucks can cover

Milwaukee has a roster capable of two-way brilliance. On offense, the Bucks ranked in the top five of the NBA in offense this season, averaging 114.3 points per 100 possessions. Milwaukee is prolific from 3-point range, making 36.6 percent of attempts in 2021-22, and the Bucks ranked in the top 10 in 2-point accuracy and free throw creation in the regular season. Everything revolves around Antetokounmpo, who averaged 29.9 points, 11.6 rebounds and 5.8 assists per game as an MVP finalist, and the Bucks are also tremendous on defense. 

Milwaukee leads the NBA playoffs 2022 with a 96.8 defensive rating, and the Bucks are securing 80.5 percent of available defensive rebounds in the postseason. In the series, the Bucks are holding Boston to 1.03 points per possession, an elite figure, and Milwaukee is forcing a turnover on 17.7 percent of defensive possessions. With Brook Lopez now at full strength, the Bucks are nearly impossible to score on at the rim, and the Bucks are now shifting to a friendly home environment.

How to make Bucks vs. Celtics picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, projecting 220 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the model's Celtics vs. Bucks pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Bucks vs. Celtics? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bucks vs. Celtics spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.