German election 2025 live updates: Voting begins after final poll ...

23 Feb 2025

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German election 2025 live updates Voting begins after final poll

Germany heads to the polls for the fourth snap election in its history

Voters are heading to the polls in Germany, in an election which is being closely watched across Europe and in the United States.

Polling stations opened their doors at 8am local time (7am UK), with exit polls released and counting set to begin as soon as voting closes at 6pm (5pm UK).

The outcome, which will determine how the country is run for the next four years, is expected to be clear fairly quickly, but the final official result is expected early on Monday.

The centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) is hoping to become the largest party in the Bundestag, allowing them to reinstall their first chancellor since Angela Merkel stepped down in 2021.

The far-right AfD is also hoping to make gains, after an election campaign heavily focused on immigration and the economy.

German president Frank-Walter Steinmeier called the elections after chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a vote of confidence on 15 January – after losing the support of his coalition when he fired finance minister Christian Lindner amid tensions over economic policy.

But the governing coalition had been falling in popularity long before the dispute within government, with the AfD having surged in federal elections in Thuringia and Saxony last September.

Key Points

Germany is in fearful mourning while far-right AfD party surges in polls ahead of election
How Elon Musk became champion of AfD
Who are the candidates for Germany's next chancellor?
Germany heads to the polls with far-right surge expected

How quickly will a governing coalition be formed?

13:11 , Andy Gregory

There is no formal referee for the process of forming a new government, and no set time limit.

Conservative leader and front-runner Friedrich Merz has said he hopes to form a new government by mid-April if he wins.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s outgoing government will remain in office on a caretaker basis until the Bundestag elects the new chancellor.

Some states report higher interim voter turnout compared with 2021 election

12:51 , Andy Gregory

While a federal interim figure on voter turnout is not expected until later this afternoon, some states have now published some early statistics which are being reported by German news outlets.

As of midday in Saxony, 27.1 percent of those eligible to vote had cast ballots, compared with 25.8 per cent at the same time in the previous 2021 election.

In Lower Saxony, that figure was 43 percent, compared with 36.6 percent in 2021.

There was an even more dramatic increase in Saxony-Anhalt, where 37.1 per cent of those eligible had voted by midday, compared with 26.5 per cent at the same time in 2021.

However, in the northermost state of Schleswig-Holstein, as of 11am, 21.3 percent of eligible voters had cast their ballots, which was down slightly from 23.8 per cent in 2021.

Bayern great Uli Hoeness speaks out against far right

12:01 , Andy Gregory

Bayern Munich powerbroker Uli Hoeness has said he would speak with any of the football club’s players who support the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.

Mr Hoeness, who is Bayern’s honorary president after more than 40 years at the forefront of the club, told Kicker magazine that he would question any AfD-supporting player “and ask him if he still has all his tools in his toolbox”.

He added: “Bayern is a wonderful role model for migration and integration. More than half of our youth players have a migration background.”

Scholz and Merz cast their votes

10:52 , Andy Gregory

Germany’s chancellor Olaf Scholz has now cast his vote, visiting a polling station in Potsdam alongside his wife Britta Ernst.

The CDU/CSU’s candidate for chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has also cast his ballot at a polling station in Arnsberg.

What are Germans voting for?

10:36 , Andy Gregory

More than 59 million people in the nation of 84 million are eligible to elect the 630 members of the lower house of parliament, the Bundestag, who will take their seats under the glass dome of Berlin’s landmark Reichstag building.

Germany’s electoral system rarely produces absolute majorities, and no party looks anywhere near one this time. It’s expected that two or more parties will form a coalition, following potentially difficult negotiations that will take weeks or even months before the Bundestag elects the next chancellor.

This election is taking place seven months before it was originally planned, after centre-left chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition collapsed in November, three years into a term that was increasingly marred by infighting.

10:01 , Andy Gregory

Germany’s president Frank-Walter Steinmeier has urged others to exercise their right to vote as he cast his own ballot on Sunday morning.

“Use your right to vote, go and vote, help determine the future of our country and vote in the knowledge that your vote could be the decisive one,” Mr Steinmeier was quoted in local media as saying at a school in Berlin-Zehlendorf.

German president casts his vote

09:15 , Amy-Clare Martin

German president Frank-Walter Steinmeier has cast his vote at a polling station in Berlin.

Steinmeier called the elections after chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a vote of confidence in the German Bundestag on 15 January – after losing the support of his coalition when he fired finance minister Christian Lindner amid tensions over economic policy.

When will we find out the result?

08:55 , Amy-Clare Martin

Exit polls will be announced and vote counting will begin as soon as soon as polls close at 6pm local time (5pm UK).

The general picture is expected to become clear fairly quickly, but the final official result is not expected until early on Monday.

Germany’s electoral system rarely gives any party an absolute majority and it is expected that two or more parties will most likely form a coalition.

There is no set time limit for this process, with parties likely to hold exploratory talks to determine who they have most common ground with before moving on to formal coalition talks.

Those negotiations typically produce a detailed coalition agreement setting out the new government’s plans. That will typically need approval at least from conventions of the parties involved and some parties may choose to put it to a ballot of their entire membership.

Once that process is complete, the Bundestag can elect the new chancellor.

German voters head to the polls

08:35 , Amy-Clare Martin

German voters are heading to the polls to elect a new parliament which will determine how the country is run for the next four years.

Polls opened at 8am local time (7am UK), with exit polls released and counting set to begin as soon as voting closes at 6pm (5pm UK).

Germans can also vote by postal ballot, but their ballot must arrive by the time polling stations close on election day to be counted.

How Elon Musk became a champion of the German far-right

07:00 , Andy Gregory

When a young German anti-climate activist nicknamed the “anti-Greta Thunberg” began flattering tech billionaire Elon Musk on X, few could have foreseen it leading to the tech billionaire wholeheartedly endorsing Germany’s far-right. It would take just ten months.

X owner turned Trump ally Musk has described the AfD as the only party that “can save Germany”, interviewed the party’s leader, Alice Wiedel, spoken at the AfD’s election rally and written an op-ed endorsing the party.

Musk has freely admitted that before his first interaction with the “anti-Greta Thunberg” Naomi Seibt on April 20 last year, he “didn’t know [the] AfD from a hole in the ground”.

Since she was 19, Seibt has spent five years becoming a right-wing firebrand, slowly building up an audience largely outside of Germany.

She began with opposition to climate activism, working with a pro-Trump, climate denial US think tank called Heartland Institute, but quickly turned to fighting against the “woke mind virus”. She is anti-feminist, anti-Islam, pro-Russian and dismissive of German guilt over its Nazi past.

Tom Watling and Alicja Hagopian report:

Elon Musk wants far right AfD to win the German election - here’s how he’s doing it

Voices | Germany’s election is a litmus test for Trump’s right-wing impact on Europe

06:01 , Andy Gregory

Our columnist Mary Dejevsky writes:

Europe thought it was better prepared for a Donald Trump presidency the second time around, but it clearly had little idea of the hurricane about to head east. The way Trump has exercised power since entering the White House has been dizzying. It has distressed much of the European and British establishment, while lending new dynamism to the political right – the actual right, that is, not its liberal European rendition.

You have only to consider the right-wing pow-wow that was the conference of the Alliance for Responsible Citizenship (ARC) in London this week. Meet the right as a rising political force, which may well be set to grow for as long as Trump is in power and as long as Trumpism endures.

But what of continental Europe? Could it be that Trump is changing the political dynamics here as well, to the point where the right could become dominant across the region? To an extent, the views brought together by the ARC are an Anglo-Saxon phenomenon. But you could also argue that, in much of Europe, we are almost there.

The right was successfully creeping across Europe well before Trump 2.0 came along. Giorgia Meloni won power in Italy in 2022; there are what are widely regarded as populist governments of the right in Hungary, Slovakia and now Austria, and there would also be such a government in Romania had the election not been annulled. The far-right Freedom Party topped the polls in the Netherlands in 2023 and is part of a four-party coalition. The far-right Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD) is the main opposition in several regions in Germany, after heading last year’s polls, while Marine Le Pen’s National Rally is the main opposition in the French parliament, following Emmanuel Macron’s ill-judged summer election.

But there remains a big constraint on far-right parties being elected to government in France and Germany, which can be summed up as history. Voters in France have repeatedly shrunk from electing a far-right president or parliament, despite coming near, and those German regions where the AfD has topped the polls face the opprobrium of the wider electorate, with huge “Never Again!” protests every recent weekend. Could the Trump effect change this?

There may be a preliminary answer as early as this Sunday night.

Germany’s election is the test case for Trump’s impact on Europe

Frontrunner Merz insists he will not break far-right 'firewall' for second time

05:00 , Andy Gregory

In his final pitch to voters, frontrunner Friedrich Merz underscored his calls for a tougher stance on migration, but sought to insist that he would not repeat his move to break the so-called “firewall” against the far-right again.

Last month, he brought a nonbinding motion calling for many more migrants to be turned back at Germany's borders to parliament. The motion was approved thanks to votes from AfD – marking a first in post-war Germany which prompted opponents to accuse Mr Merz of breaking a taboo. He rejects the criticism.

“We will under no circumstances discuss any talks, never mind negotiations or a participation in government, with AfD,” Mr Merz insisted on Saturday.

But some voters are finding it difficult to accept this pledge, including some in the LGBTQ+ community. As we reported earlier this week, many of AfD’s LGBTQ-related demands overlap with those of the conservatives, including reversing the trans self-determination law and restricting the use of inclusive language and gender-affirming care for minors.

“Whoever does it once, does it twice, and three times,” Andre Lehmann, board member at Germany's LGBTQ+ umbrella group LSVD told The Independent. “It's not only a threat for LGBTI people in Germany, but for many, many people in this country, and for democracy as a whole.”

Musk has used his influence to spread misinformation and populist narratives, SPD politician says

04:00 , Tom Watling, Alicja Hagopian

Dirk Wiese, a politician in the centre-left SPD wing of the government, told The Independent that Elon Musk has “used his influence for deliberate provocations, misinformation, and the spread of populist narratives”.

For Wiese, Musk “crossed a red line” when he opened up his social media platform X, formerly Twitter, to unregulated, unverified content.

“His platform, X, has increasingly become a hub for right-wing conspiracy theories and anti-democratic actors,” he says.

“This has real-world consequences, in Germany, too. Disinformation undermines social cohesion and can influence elections. Musk crosses a red line when he deliberately interferes in democratic processes.

“Those who deliberately sow division, provoke, and disregard historical accountability must face consequences—whether in public perception or in business. Germany will stand firm against any form of foreign interference and disinformation.”

Who is far-right leader Alice Weidel?

03:00 , AP

The 46-year-old is making the first bid of the far-right, Alternative for Germany (AfD) for the country’s top job.

An economist by training, Weidel joined the party shortly after it was founded in 2013.

She has been co-leader of her party’s parliamentary group since the party first won seats in the national legislature in 2017. She has been a co-leader of the party itself since 2022, along with Tino Chrupalla.

In December, she was nominated as the candidate for chancellor – though other parties say they won't work with the AfD, so she has no realistic path to the top job at present.

Who is frontrunner Friedrich Merz?

02:00 , AP

Germany's 69-year-old opposition leader has been the front-runner in the election campaign, with his center-right Union bloc leading polls.

He became the leader of his Christian Democratic Union party after longtime chancellor Angela Merkel – a former rival – stepped down in 2021. Merz has taken his party in a more conservative direction. In the election campaign, he has made curbing irregular migration a central issue.

Merz lacks experience in government. He joined the European Parliament in 1989 before becoming a lawmaker in Germany five years later. He took a break from active politics for several years after 2009, practicing as a lawyer and heading the supervisory board of investment manager BlackRock’s German branch.

Analysis | The rights of Germany’s LGBTQ+ community are under attack

01:00 , Andy Gregory

For many LGBTQ+ Germans, the upcoming elections are a source of anxiety, a fight to maintain existing rights rather than a push for new ones.

The focus has shifted from progress to preservation, with hard-won gains now under threat.

Despite the fact its candidate for chancellor is openly lesbian, the far-right AfD party has become the loudest voice against LGBTQ+ rights in parliament, and even filed a motion to repeal same-sex marriage and adoption in 2017.

While the far-right party alone will likely not have enough seats to push these demands forward, many fear that frontrunner Friedrich Merz’s recent collaboration with AfD on migration – which shattered a longstanding taboo against working with the far-right – could see his CDU/CSU party joining AfD to pass new LGBTQ+ rights restrictions nationally – just as they have already done at the state level.

Many of AfD’s LGBTQ-related demands overlap with those of the conservatives, be it reversing the trans self-determination law or restricting the use of inclusive language and gender-affirming care for minors.

Enrique Anarte has more in this report:

Germany’s LGBTQ+ community are under attack – this election is a turning point

Scholz makes final appeal to voters

Saturday 22 February 2025 23:59 , Andy Gregory

Chancellor Olaf Scholz has insisted that he still hopes for an improbable last-minute comeback, as he made his final appeal to voters ahead of tomorrow’s vote.

At an event in Potsdam, which he represents in parliament, Mr Scholz again sought to cast doubt on frontrunner Friedrich Merz's reliability and portrayed his party as the strongest bulwark against the AfD playing any role.

On the sidelines of an earlier event in Potsdam, Mr Scholz said that he was “convinced that, this time, many people will only make their decision at the polling station”.

“I don't believe in miracles, but in an election victory,” he was quoted as saying by Germany’s dpa news agency.

His governing SDP party is currently projected to come in third place behind Mr Friedrich’s CDU/CSU and the far-right AfD.

Pictured: Counterprotesters march against AfD

Saturday 22 February 2025 23:01 , Andy Gregory

Protests against the far right have been held in cities across Germany today, including in the Thuringia city of Erfurt, where the AfD has held its campaign finale.

AfD leader is most popular German politician on Elon Musk's X

Saturday 22 February 2025 22:02 , Tom Watling, Alicja Hagopian

Elon Musk’s tweets have directly contributed to making AfD leader Alice Weidel the most popular German politician on X, and broadened the reach of her posts, according to research from the Humboldt Institute for Internet and Society and Synosys.

Sami Nenno and Philipp Lorenz-Spreen, authors of the research, found that retweets or mentions of the AfD and/or Weidel often led to much higher reach than average; from around 200,000 views, to over 1 million.

In addition, the most intensive period of Musk’s interaction with the AfD and related content occurred between late December and mid-January; over which time Weidel’s following nearly doubled, from just over 500,000 to 985,000.

Wiedel’s following profited enormously from interaction with Musk. Yet the authors found that the reach of Musk’s amplification has been limited to AfD and Weidel’s presence on X, with no clear correlation between greater influence on Facebook, Instagram, or TikTok.

“So far, we cannot find any strong evidence that Weidel’s popularity on X is also spreading to other platforms. As things stand, the Musk effect is therefore limited to X,” write Nenno and Lorenz Spreen.

Elon Musk uses X to post in support of far-right AfD

Saturday 22 February 2025 21:04 , Andy Gregory

Elon Musk, who has emerged as a staunch backer of the far-right AfD party, has used his social media platform X to post in support of them again today.

According to X, the post has been viewed tens of millions of times.

How could Germany's new parliament look?

Saturday 22 February 2025 20:07 , Andy Gregory

With a highly competitive party landscape and a complex electoral system, the parliament could comprise anywhere from four to eight parties. The first scenario would yield the most consolidated Bundestag since 2017, while the latter would mark the most diverse in modern German history.

That means the distribution of power in the new parliament is extremely hard to predict and that frontrunner Friedrich Merz will most likely need a coalition partner – either Scholz's Social Democrats or the Greens or maybe both – to build a majority government.

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), currently in second place in most polls on around 20 per cent, is unlikely to be part of any coalition government as all other parties have ruled out working with a party they regard as undemocratic.

How does the 5 per cent parliamentary threshold work?

Saturday 22 February 2025 19:10 , Andy Gregory

Under rules designed to prevent the kind of chaotic and fragmented parliaments that in the 1930s helped fuel the disastrous rise to power of Adolf Hitler’s Nazis, parties must in general get 5 per cent of the national vote in order to enter parliament.

But under a rule that had been scrapped in the new law before being restored by a court ruling, parties that win three constituency seats are entitled to seats corresponding to their vote share even if it is below 5 per cent.

In 2021, that saved the Left party, which, thanks to three members with strong regional bases in eastern Germany, got 39 seats.

The combination of the 5 per cent threshold, the three-seat exception, and an unusually competitive party landscape with many smaller parties jostling for position makes for a particularly unpredictable result this time.

Polls put the neoliberal Free Democrats, whose departure from chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-way coalition precipitated the snap election, on about 4 to 5 per cent, while the Left is seen on 6 to 7 per cent and its splinter party, the upstart Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), on 4 to 5 per cent.

The Free Voters, strong rivals to the CSU in Bavaria, are far short of the 5 per cent threshold nationally but have a chance of winning three member constituencies, which would put them in the Bundestag for the first time.

Watch: Antifa protesters march ahead of far-right AfD rally in Erfurt

Saturday 22 February 2025 18:16 , Andy Gregory

My colleague Tom Watling reports from Erfurt:

Watch: Far-right AfD supporters in Germany cite rising crime and social changes as reasons for support

Saturday 22 February 2025 18:15 , Andy Gregory

Scholz backs lowering voting age to 16

Saturday 22 February 2025 17:21 , Andy Gregory

Chancellor Olaf Scholz has once again spoken out in favour of lowering the voting age to 16 for future federal elections.

“This is already the case in many states and in many local elections in Germany. It worked well,” he was quoted by Der Spiegel as saying during his final tour of Brandenburg. “All the prejudices about it were wrong.”

Berlin Holocaust Memorial stabbing suspect wanted to kill Jewish people, prosecutors say

Saturday 22 February 2025 16:26 , Andy Gregory

Campaigning for Sunday’s election has been marred by a series of high-profile attacks in which the suspects are from migrant backgrounds, shifting the focus away from Germany’s ailing economy and boosting support for the Alternative for Germany, which is on track to secure second place.

Prosecutors said on Sunday that the suspect in a stabbing at Berlin’s Holocaust Memorial two days before Germany’s election was a Syrian refugee who apparently wanted to kill Jews. The 19-year-old was arrested almost three hours after the knife attack on a Spanish tourist.

Police and prosecutors said the suspect, who approached officers with blood on his hands and clothes, arrived in Germany in 2023 as an unaccompanied minor and successfully applied for asylum. He lives in Leipzig. Evidence so far suggests the attack was linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Prosecutors are working to establish if the suspect, who is under investigation on suspicion of attempted murder and bodily harm, suffers from any mental illness. They said he was not previously known to police or judicial authorities in Berlin.

Our crime correspondent Amy-Clare Martin reports:

Berlin Holocaust Memorial stabbing suspect was Syrian refugee, prosecutors say

Germans' lives have 'changed' and country needs strong leadership, AfD supporter says

Saturday 22 February 2025 15:34 , Tom Watling, in Erfurt

Jörn Kaulhausen, 63, told The Independent that he is an AfD supporter because the country has “changed” and it needs strong leadership.

He references 2015, when former chancellor Angela Merkel opened the German borders to more than a million asylum seekers.

“Our lives have changed. Our women live in fear. They can’t move in the cities like before,” he claimed. “A lot of people try to attack us with knives. Everyday we have crimes here in Germany.

“We can’t accept it anymore.”

Counterprotesters march ahead of AfD rally in Erfurt

Saturday 22 February 2025 15:10 , Tom Watling, in Erfurt

In the small city of Erfurt, central Germany, the local Alternative for Germany is about to kick off its election campaign finale before voters go to the polls nationwide tomorrow.

The city is in the Thuringia region where the AfD is particularly popular in Germany. It is also one of the regions where the AfD has been designated as a far-right extremist party.

At least two thousand people are expected at today’s rally.

Counter protesters decrying the Alternative for Germany as Nazis were marching through the city ahead of the rally.

In the city’s main square, the counter protesters were set to gather just twenty metres from the AfD rally. Dozens of police vans lined the square between them.

What is Germany's hybrid voting system?

Saturday 22 February 2025 14:42 , Andy Gregory

Germany’s reformed voting system aims to blend British or US-style single-member constituencies with the proportionality characteristic of most continental European countries.

Under the old system, proportionality was ensured by topping up parliament with extra seats after winners were found in each of 299 constituencies. This ensured parties held seats in line with their share of the vote, regardless of the distribution of constituency seats.

In 2021, that led to a parliament of 735 seats, one of the largest legislatures in the world.

A new law, introduced in 2023, fixes parliament at 630 seats – between Britain’s House of Commons and Turkey’s National Assembly in world rankings – and prioritises proportionality over individual member seats.

Now, if a party wins a share of seats that is greater in proportion to their share of the national vote, some constituencies will be left vacant, starting with those where the winning candidates have the narrowest margin of victory.

The change may hurt parties that are traditionally strong in single-member constituencies – in particular the Christian Social Union (CSU), the Bavarian sister party of the Christian Democrats (CDU) whose leader Friedrich Merz is tipped to become the next chancellor.

Saturday 22 February 2025 14:14

A German political scientist has suggested that increased polarisation in society will result in a higher voter turnout because people believe a lot is at stake – with many feeling that democracy itself is under threat.

While a high voter turnout is positive, Dr Sarah Strömel of the University of Regensburg told broadcaster ARD that in the long term the development towards more ideological polarisation of different opinions is not good for democracy.

“People think in black and white categories, in either-or categories and not in shades of gray”, which strengthens fringe parties and undermines tolerance, said Dr Strömel.

Frontrunner Merz says Trump could 'completely reshape the world map'

Saturday 22 February 2025 13:19 , Andy Gregory

With European peace and security looming large in the minds of German voters, frontrunner Friedrich Merz warned at a campaign rally on Friday that Donald Trump’s administration could “completely reshape the map of the world”.

The CDU candidate has warned that Europe must be ready to take responsibility for its own defence without the help of the United States, and told the audience: “We are seeing a change of government in America that is not just another change of government but one that may completely reshape the map of the world.”

Mr Merz has also pledged to play a larger role in the EU, telling the Munich Security Conference: “I am hearing often that there is a lack of German leadership within the European Union. I fully agree with those who are demanding more leadership from Germany and frankly I’m willing to do that because Germany is in a strategic position at the centre of Europe and so many things depend on Germany that we are having to take a new role.”

What is a grand coalition?

Saturday 22 February 2025 12:49 , Andy Gregory

Germany could face months of political uncertainty after Sunday’s election as the winning party will almost certainly have to form a coalition to secure a majority.

While Friedrich Merz is the frontrunner to become chancellor, he will need a partner, or possibly two. On a live TV debate on Sunday, Mr Merz said he would like to have two coalition options.

A so-called grand coalition of the two big centrist parties, the CDU/CSU and chancellor Olaf Scholz's centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) is seen as the most likely outcome, with analysts at the Eurasia Group giving it a 60 per cent likelihood.

The SPD and CDU/CSU have already governed together four times since the Second World War – three of those under the leadership of former conservative chancellor Angela Merkel.

Mr Merz, however, has moved the bloc further to the right, taking a tougher stance on migration than Merkel and a more pro-market position on the economy. The CDU/CSU wants broad tax cuts while the SPD wants to raise taxes for high-income earners and revive a wealth tax. That means both could struggle to agree on deeper reforms, except a possible easing of the debt brake.

Protests called against far right

Saturday 22 February 2025 12:14 , Andy Gregory

Protesters against the far right are taking to the streets in German cities ahead of tomorrow’s election.

Der Spiegel reports on the various demonstrations which have been organised, including one named “Clear stance against the right” in Hamburg, another called “Against the AfD and the shift to the right” in Erfurt, and “No vote for isolation and agitation” in Berlin.

Shape of next German government could swing on tenths of a percentage point, poll suggests

Saturday 22 February 2025 11:37 , Andy Gregory

The formation of the next German government could swing on just tenths of a percentage point, a newspaper has claimed, after it published a new poll.

In terms of the largest parties, the new Insa polling of just over 2,000 people was largely in line with YouGov’s final MRP poll – with Friedrich Merz’s centre-right CDU/CSU at 29.5 per cent, the far-right AfD party on 21 per cent, and Olaf Scholz’s incumbent SPD on just 15 per cent.

But Bild reports that the surprise winner would be the Left, which polled at 7.5 percent, with Insa chief Hermann Binkert saying: “The Left Party is the big winner of the election campaign. She has clearly fought her way over the five percent hurdle.”

Meanwhile, the Greens polled at 12.5 per cent, the leftist pro-Russian BSW at 5 per cent, and the liberal FDP at 4.5 per cent.

Although their chances of clearing the 5 per cent threshold for entering parliament hang in the balance, the FDP could still even enter into a government in the event that more than five parties manage to enter the Bundestag – which could mean that the CDU/CSU are forces to rely on both the SPD and the Greens for a parliamentary majority, Bild reports.

Scholz: 'I don't believe in miracles, but in an election victory'

Saturday 22 February 2025 11:10 , Andy Gregory

Chancellor Olaf Scholz has claimed not to “believe in miracles, but in an election victory”, as his campaign draws to an end with his Social Democrats party polling in third place.

Speaking in his constituency in Potsdam, Mr Scholz told journalists: “I am quite sure that I can win the constituency again - just like last time. The mood is like that.”

“I don't believe in miracles, but in an election victory,” he was quoted as saying by Bild. “I am convinced that this time it will be the case that a lot of people will only make up their minds at the polling station.”

Mr Scholz, who has been chancellor since 2021, said he believed many people would cast both votes for his party “so that we are strong enough and so that the government can continue under my leadership”.

Germany warns of suspected Russian disinformation campaign spreading election fraud lies

Saturday 22 February 2025 10:50 , Andy Gregory

Germany’s interior ministry has warned of a suspected Russian disinformation campaign spreading false claims of election fraud on social media.

Fake footage has been propagated suggesting that the AfD candidate has been left off ballots in Leipzig, while another claims to show a machine shredding votes cast for the far-right party, both of which have been debunked by local and national officials – who pointed to a potential Russian disinformation campaign.

“This is a targeted campaign designed to influence the Bundestag election,” an interior ministry spokesperson told Politico.

“Authorities in Leipzig and Hamburg quickly verified these videos as fake. The characteristics of this disinformation effort point to ‘Storm-1516,’ a Russian-affiliated influence operation that has been active in past elections.”

Storm-1516 is a Russian troll farm well known for spreading videos featuring false narratives, including one featuring a man claiming to be a Hamas fighter threatening an Olympic attack, and another in which a woman claimed former US presidential candidate Kamala Harris was involved in a 2011 hit-and-run accident.

Political posters defaced in Munich

Saturday 22 February 2025 10:16 , Andy Gregory

My colleague Tom Watling reports from Munich:

AfD posters plastered around Munich have had to be raised higher off the ground to prevent them from being ripped up by angry pedestrians.

They are often plastered with small stickers saying “FCKAFD”.

Frontrunner Friedrich Merz has also seen some of his posters defaced with an Adolf Hitler moustache, after he threatened the longstanding “firewall” against the far right in Germany by accepting votes from AfD last month to push through a bill on tighter immigration controls.

Merz would spark 'competition for leadership in Europe'

Saturday 22 February 2025 09:51 , Andy Gregory

Frontrunner Friedrich Merz would spark “a competition for leadership in Europe” and wants to “reinstate Germany’s leadership” in the EU, an analyst has suggested.

Politico cited people close to EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen as saying that she and Mr Merz – who both hail from the same party, but differ somewhat in their politics – would be able to transcend their past differences and find a harmonious co-existence based on the larger goals of strengthening the EU.

A CDU spokesperson told the outlet that the pair speak regularly by phone and co-operate well, while an EU Commission official close to Ms von der Leyen said: “They share the same goal to increase the competitiveness of Europe, including by making business simpler and faster.”

But others reportedly describe the relationship as being strained.

“The defining feature of this relationship is that it will potentially be a competition for leadership in Europe,” Jan Techau, a director at the Eurasia group think-tank told Politico. “She very clearly is interested in dominating the Brussels scene … whereas Merz of course wants to reinstate Germany’s leadership in Europe.”

German far-right leader 'seems like an adult in the room among extremists'

Saturday 22 February 2025 09:29 , Andy Gregory

Alice Weidel, the far-right Alternative for Germany’s chancellor candidate, is an unlikely public face for a male-dominated, anti-immigration party that depicts itself as a defender of traditional family values.

The 46-year-old is raising two sons with a Sri Lankan-born woman, is a filmmaker, and speaks fluent English and Mandarin, having done a doctorate in economics in China. A western German leading a party that is strongest in the former communist East, she worked for Goldman Sachs and Allianz Global Investors and as a freelance business consultant before entering politics.

Ms Weidel’s unusual profile, however, is precisely what makes her an asset to the AfD, according to political analysts, lending a veneer of well-heeled liberal respectability to a party that is suspected by authorities of being anti-democratic.

“Weidel is someone who can appeal to a broader public than the typical AfD constituency, to the middle class bourgeoisie,” said Oliver Lembcke, political scientist at the University of Bochum. “She seems like the adult in the room among all these lunatics and extremists.”

Who are the contenders?

Saturday 22 February 2025 07:00 , Alex Croft

Four candidates are running to be Germany’s next leader: incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz, of the centre-left Social Democrats; Friedrich Merz, the candidate of the mainstream conservative Christian Democratic Union party; current Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, of the environmentalist Greens; and Alice Weidel, of the far-right, anti-immigration Alternative for Germany, or AfD.

Pre-election polls have put Merz’s Union bloc in the lead with support of about 30 per cent, ahead of AfD, with around 20 per cent. Scholz’s Social Democrats and Habeck’s Greens are further back.

Merz is favored to replace Scholz as chancellor, but it’s not yet clear what governing coalitions will be possible after the election. How easy it is to form a government may depend in part on how many parties are in the new parliament. Opinion polls show three parties hovering around the 5 per cent of the vote needed to win seats.

All mainstream parties say they won’t work with AfD.

Trump wishes luck to German parties

Saturday 22 February 2025 06:30 , Alisha Rahaman Sarkar

US president Donald Trump wished the parties in Germany luck after seemingly forgetting the European country is going to polls this weekend.

When asked by a reporter at the White House about his thoughts on the Sunday election, Mr Trump asked: "Who has elections?"

"Germany," the reporter replied."I wish them luck," Mr Trump said, according to DW. "We got our own problems."

Elon Musk wants the far right AfD to win the German election - here’s how he became their champion

Saturday 22 February 2025 06:01 , Alex Croft

Germany goes to the polls on Sunday and there are fears the Alternative for Deutschland (AfD), a political party partly designated as far-right extremists, could win nearly a quarter of the national vote.

Tom Watling and Alicja Hagopian report:

Elon Musk wants far right AfD to win the German election - here’s how he’s doing it

Merz says 'Germany must be prepared to take on leadership responsibility'

Saturday 22 February 2025 05:19 , Alisha Rahaman Sarkar

Election frontrunner Friedrich Merz, the head of the conservative CDU/CSU bloc, warned yesterday that while Germany's future lay in the West, it was not clear that the West would include the US anymore.

His statement comes at a time when Europe is seeking to tackle a confrontational Donald Trump, whose apparent wish to disengage from the region and mend ties with Russia raises questions about the solidity of the Western alliance.

"But even without Americans, our place remains in the centre of Europe, not alongside [Vladimir] Putin and not isolated on the way to the right-wing populist sidelines," Mr Merz wrote in a letter to supporters. "For Europe to continue to succeed in the future, Germany must be prepared to take on leadership responsibility."

The key issues: Migration

Saturday 22 February 2025 05:01 , Alex Croft

A slew of violent attacks linked to foreign suspects in Germany have compounded public concerns over security and migration, prompting political parties to demand stricter measures on migration.

After the most recent attack on 22 January, Merz sponsored a draft bill with AfD support, breaking a taboo against cooperating with the far-right party.

However, he later failed to secure a majority for the bill as some of the deputies from his own party refused to support it.

In general, the conservative CDU has adopted a stricter stance on immigration in recent years, calling for pushing back asylum seekers at the borders, and for limits on family reunifications and naturalisation for refugees.

The anti-Islam, anti-migration AfD has called for borders to be closed and asylum seekers to no longer have the right to family reunification. Some senior AfD members have gone further in their comments and were present at discussions among far-right activists about deporting millions of people of foreign origin, including German citizens.

The SPD itself has toughened its position by enforcing stricter border controls and accelerating deportations, although it also wants to bring in more foreign skilled workers.

In contrast, the Greens maintain a more open asylum policy, promoting state-backed sea rescue initiatives and simplifying family reunification processes and enhancing integration.

What happens after polls close?

Saturday 22 February 2025 04:02

Germany's electoral system rarely gives any party an absolute majority and opinion polls suggest that no party is anywhere near one this time. The country has no tradition of minority governments at national level, which means that two or more parties will most likely form a coalition.

There is no formal referee for the process of forming a new government, and no set time limit. Parties hold exploratory talks to determine who they have most common ground with, and one combination of parties then moves on to formal coalition talks.

Those negotiations typically produce a detailed coalition agreement setting out the new government’s plans. That will typically need approval at least from conventions of the parties involved. Some parties may choose to put it to a ballot of their entire membership.

Once that process is complete, the Bundestag can elect the new chancellor.

Knife attack outside Berlin Holocaust memorial leaves one injured

Saturday 22 February 2025 03:46 , Alisha Rahaman Sarkar

A Spanish tourist has been seriously injured in a stabbing attack at Berlin's Holocaust memorial two days before a watershed national election.

Officers arrested a suspect on Friday evening, shortly after the assault on the northern side of the vast field of 2,700 grey concrete slabs, across the street from the US embassy.

"Our forces have detained a suspect in the vicinity of the crime scene," city police posted on X, giving no details on his identity or possible motive, but adding that he would be interrogated. "Investigations continue."

More here.

Knife attack outside Berlin Holocaust memorial leaves one injured

Far-right surge expected in polls

Saturday 22 February 2025 03:01 , Alex Croft

German voters will head to the polls on Sunday, with the far-right AfD party expected to surge.

The SPD and Greens, both part of the governing coalition, are likely to drop in popularity according to recent polling.

But Germany’s centre-right Christian Democrats, who were led by long-serving chancellor Angela Merkel until 2021, are likely to become the largest party in parliament.

German chancellor Olaf Scholz has struggled with popularity ratings for much of his time as the German leader.

Sitting at 18 per cent according to a Infratest Dimap survey last year, his popularity ratings were some of the lowest recorded by a German leader.

YouGov’s final MRP poll suggests the far-right AfD’s 145 seats will surpass the 115 projected for the governing SPD.

The Greens, the SPD’s coalition partner, are also projected to fall from their record 15 per cent vote share in 2021 to 13 per cent on Sunday.

It is the fourth snap election in Germany’s history, after president Frank-Walter Steinmeier dissolved parliament when Mr Scholz lost a vote of confidence in parliament.

Germany is in fearful mourning while far-right AfD party surges in polls ahead of election

Saturday 22 February 2025 02:24 , Jabed Ahmed

With the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany party, residents in Munich tell Tom Watling of the horror of suffering the third suspected terror attack of the country’s election cycle

Germany is in mourning while far-right AfD party surges in polls ahead of election

Frontrunner Merz says Germany's economy must improve for Berlin to become stronger voice in EU

Saturday 22 February 2025 17:56 , Andy Gregory

Opposition leader and front-runner Friedrich Merz has vowed to revive Germany’s stagnant economy and defend Europe’s interests in his final pitch to voters.

At a rally in a Munich beer hall, Mr Merz told supporters that “three years in opposition are enough”.

Vowing that, “with me, Germany will have a strong voice in the European Union again”, he added: “Europe must be a player and not ask maybe to get a seat at a side table. No, we must sit at the main table; and we must safeguard our interests against Russia, against China, and if necessary also with respect to America."

He said, however, that “we will only gain respect in this European Union again if ... we finally overcome our country's economic weakness”, which he described as “overwhelmingly homemade”.

Watch: German activists condemn Tesla for Musk’s one-handed salute at Trump’s inauguration

Saturday 22 February 2025 02:00 , Alex Croft

Resistance against AfD grows

Saturday 22 February 2025 01:23 , Tom Watling

Counter-protests across Germany, including in Munich, have seen hundreds of thousands rally against the AfD.

Germany has long maintained a policy of Brandmauer—a political firewall refusing cooperation with far-right parties since the 1950s. However, AfD posters across Munich have been raised higher to prevent them from being torn down, and many have been vandalized with “FCKAFD” stickers.

CDU leader Friedrich Merz tested this firewall last month by accepting AfD votes to push through an immigration bill. As a result, his campaign posters have been defaced.

Merz insists that if he wins, he will not form a coalition with the AfD but will instead seek alliances with other parties.

How austerity and the debt brake opened the door to the far-right

Saturday 22 February 2025 01:02 , Alex Croft

In Gelsenkirchen, a former coal town in Germany's industrial Ruhr Valley, Lars Baumguertel, 58, oversees one of the region's last surviving manufacturers.

His company, like many Mittelstand businesses – the small and medium-sized enterprises that form the backbone of the German economy – is struggling under the weight of soaring energy costs following the disruption of cheap Russian gas supplies after the Ukraine war.

This struggle is reflected in Germany's broader economic woes. The nation, Europe's largest economy, has experienced consecutive years of contraction in 2024, marking its worst performance in two decades.

Gelsenkirchen, with the country's highest unemployment rate, has been particularly hard hit. This economic hardship has fuelled a surge in support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.

How austerity and the debt brake opened the door to the German far-right

Far-right AfD gains momentum amid rising fears

Saturday 22 February 2025 00:27 , Jabed Ahmed

Attacks across the nation have intensified Germany’s already toxic political environment, with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) capitalizing on them to push for stricter immigration policies.

AfD leader Alice Weidel, championed by X owner Elon Musk, posted on social media after the Munich attack: “Is this supposed to go on forever? Migration turnaround now!”

The AfD, despite being officially designated as far-right extremists in some factions, has climbed to second in national polls behind the CDU, holding about 21% of the vote. In Munich and surrounding areas, it polls around 12%, while the CDU’s sister party, the CSU, remains a strong favourite.

What’s up for grabs?

Saturday 22 February 2025 00:00 , Alex Croft

At least 59.2 million people in a country of 84 million are eligible to vote for the new Bundestag, or lower house of parliament. It is the 630-member Bundestag that will elect the next chancellor, Germany’s equivalent of a prime minister.

There are 29 parties on the ballot, but it’s likely that between five and eight of them will get enough votes to win seats in parliament. In most cases, parties must win at least 5 per cent of the vote to get a share of the seats.

Germany is in fearful mourning while far-right AfD party surges in polls ahead of election

Friday 21 February 2025 23:56 , Jabed Ahmed

With the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany party, residents in Munich tell Tom Watling of the horror of suffering the third suspected terror attack of the country’s election cycle

Germany is in mourning while far-right AfD party surges in polls ahead of election

The key issues: Relations with Trump

Friday 21 February 2025 23:00 , Alex Croft

The question of how to tackle the new administration of US President Donald Trump, who has already flagged the possibility of increased tariffs and reduced military support for Europe, is particularly sensitive for Germany. The US remains the top destination for German exports and its main security ally.

The SPD's Scholz has sharply countered Trump's comments on Greenland and Canada, while conservative frontrunner Merz warned against lecturing him, emphasising instead areas of possible cooperation like a potential EU-U.S. trade deal or joint China strategy.

The Greens' Habeck said the EU must stand united and seek talks with the Trump administration because a trade war will ultimately harm all sides.

All of the mainstream parties have voiced scepticism about Trump's demand for European countries to increase spending on defence to 5 per cent of economic output, given that Germany will already struggle to keep to 2 per cent after its special fund for the military runs out. Habeck, however, has already proposed an increase to 3.5 per cent.

The German party that has most embraced the Trump administration is the AfD, which received multiple endorsements from Trump's ally Elon Musk, resulting in his conversation on X with the party's chancellor candidate Alice Weidel.

A nation grieves after recent attack in Munich

Friday 21 February 2025 22:27 , Tom Watling

A middle-aged woman clutching an emptied cardboard box stands silently over the latest pile of fresh red flowers near Munich central station. A pink child’s dress hangs on the railings above, next to an Algerian flag and a doll. Teddy bears sit among placards calling for peace.

It has been just over a week since a 24-year-old Afghan asylum seeker drove his white Mini into a crowd attending a trade union demonstration—the third suspected terror attack in Germany in as many months.

More than two dozen were injured. A woman originally from Algeria, who later worked for the government, and her two-year-old child were killed.

A string of attacks fuels political tensions

Friday 21 February 2025 22:22 , Tom Watling

Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced the collapse of his three-way coalition in November, bringing the originally scheduled September election forward.

Following the coalition’s collapse:

December: A 50-year-old Saudi Arabian man drove a truck into a Christmas market in Magdeburg, killing six and injuring 200.
January: A 28-year-old Afghan man attacked a school group, killing a two-year-old child and a man in Aschaffenburg.
February: Last Thursday, an attack in Munich left multiple victims. Authorities believe the assailant, Farhad Noori, may have had “Islamist motivation.”

Five reasons why Germany’s economy is in the dumps

Friday 21 February 2025 21:57 , Alex Croft

Germany hasn't seen significant economic growth in five years.

It's a stunning turnaround for Europe's biggest economy, which for much of this century had expanded exports and dominated world trade in engineered products like industrial machinery and luxury cars.

So what happened? Here are five reasons for Germany's ongoing economic slump:

Five reasons why Germany’s economy is in the dumps

The key issues: War in Ukraine

Friday 21 February 2025 20:53 , Alex Croft

Germany's mainstream parties all favour helping Ukraine fend off Russia's invasion, while the AfD and BSW want an end to weapons deliveries to Kyiv and a resumption of good relations with Moscow.

However, Scholz and his SPD have recently struck a more cautious tone - emphasising the need for diplomacy - than the conservatives, Greens and FDP, who are all in favour of Germany delivering long-range Taurus missiles to Kyiv.

The key issues: Reviving the economy

Friday 21 February 2025 19:49 , Alex Croft

Scholz has proposed incentivising private investment and modernising infrastructure with an off-budget, €100 billion fund. His SPD also plans a direct tax refund of 10 per cent on equipment investments by businesses.

The Greens' Robert Habeck has, like Scholz, called for reform of Germany's constitutionally enshrined debt brake to allow for higher public spending.

Merz had also signalled some openness to a moderate reform of the debt brake but his party's manifesto has pledged to retain it. The AfD and the FDP are fierce defenders of the limit on public borrowing.

The CDU/CSU manifesto has proposed extensive financial relief for companies and citizens, including income and corporate tax cuts, and lower electricity charges. They have not said how these would be financed.

The AfD wants Germany to ditch the euro, reintroduce the Deutsche Mark and potentially leave the EU.

In pictures: Germany prepares to head to the polls

Friday 21 February 2025 18:45 , Alex Croft