Why is Trump sledging 'nasty' Kevin Rudd? ABC listen

Sam Hawley: When Kevin Rudd declared Donald Trump the most destructive US President in history, a lot of people agreed. But his scathing assessments of the former president don't sit well now he's working as Australia's ambassador in Washington. Donald Trump, who could be elected president again in November, isn't happy. So what happens to Kevin Rudd and our alliance with America if Trump returns? I'm Sam Hawley on Gadigal land in Sydney. This is ABC News Daily.

Emma Shortis: I'm Dr Emma Shortis and I'm senior researcher in international and security affairs at the Australia Institute.

Sam Hawley: Emma, Donald Trump, he sat down with Nigel Farage, who's a right-wing broadcaster and of course a former politician in the United Kingdom. And there's this exchange from that interview on GB News.

Nigel Farage, former UK politician: We've got a Labor government in Australia. The previous ambassador, Joe Hockey, I think was quite a good friend of yours. You got on pretty well with him. Now they've appointed Kevin Rudd.

Sam Hawley: And the former US President is asked about the current Australian ambassador to the United States, Kevin Rudd.

Nigel Farage, former UK politician: I mean he has said the most horrible things. You're a destructive president, a traitor to the West. And he's now Australia's ambassador in Washington. Would you take a phone call from him?

Donald Trump, former US president: He won't be there long if that's the case. I don't know much about him. I heard he was a little bit nasty. I hear he's not the brightest bulb. But I don't know much about him. But if he's at all hostile, he will not be there long.

Nigel Farage, former UK politician: Fair enough.

Sam Hawley: What did you make of it when you heard it?

Emma Shortis: Yeah, I mean, first of all, it's kind of flashbacks to the first Trump administration when you wake up in the morning and think, God, what has he said now? But I'm actually not even convinced that Trump really knew who Farage was referring to. You know, his remarks were so general and he's kind of, I think they're reflective of his go-tos when he doesn't have context or he doesn't know specifically what somebody is talking about. So it's the typical kind of assertion of dominance.

Sam Hawley: And Kevin Rudd, well, he did have a fair bit to say about Donald Trump before he became ambassador in the United States, including during an interview on CNN.

Kevin Rudd, Ambassador of Australia to the United States: I would hope that the Republicans would see sense and get the president to behave like a responsible grown-up. And so far, he's not done that.

Sam Hawley: So what do you think Donald Trump meant, even if he didn't really know who he was talking about, when he says Kevin Rudd won't be there long if he is at all hostile? What does he mean by that? Can he kick an ambassador out of a position or would the Australian government be forced to change its ambassador if Donald Trump was returned to power?

Emma Shortis: Well look, I think this is reflective of Trump's kind of general demeanour to any kind of relationship where if he senses that somebody is not completely loyal to him, he will dismiss them out of hand. You know, we know that his whole campaign is around kind of revenge and retribution against people he believes have wronged him. So in that sense, you know, technically - there's a lot of hypotheticals here of course - if he became president again, you know, he can dismiss an ambassador. That would be quite a significant step. That's usually a very significant diplomatic incident. But we also know that it is certainly possible for an ambassador's position to become untenable and for a government to decide to withdraw the ambassador and appoint somebody new.

Sam Hawley: So there is a possibility he could be booted out of the job. But for now, at least, the Foreign Minister, Penny Wong, is backing him in.

Penny Wong, Australian foreign minister: Mr Rudd is a very effective ambassador. He is a former prime minister, a former foreign minister. His experience and skills mean he will be able to work closely with whomever is elected by the American people as the United States president.

Sam Hawley: Of course, during that interview, Nigel Farage did mention Joe Hockey. And Joe Hockey was the ambassador during the Trump presidency. He's a former coalition government treasurer, of course. And they got along really well, right?

Emma Shortis: They did. And Joe Hockey was fairly widely praised, I think, for his ability to manage Trump. You know, he famously went and played golf with him and kind of struck up this friendship.

News Reporter: Does Donald Trump cheat at golf?

Joe Hockey, former Australian Ambassador to the United States: No, he doesn't. He's a pretty good player. He's off probably about 14.

Emma Shortis: But I think what's so interesting about this framing is this idea that that is what is necessary with Australia's relationship with Trump the first time and potentially a second time. You know, that we, the Australian government and the ambassador in particular, has to cosy up to Trump and has to be seen to be really close to him in order to ensure Australia's security. And Australia really stands out internationally in that position. You know, there are very few other countries, if any, who felt the need to get so close to the Trump administration. And it's worth mentioning that, you know, a second time around, a second Trump administration will be significantly worse than the first one. And so assuming that the same tricks are going to work again, or even that they're a good idea, I think is actually pretty risky for Australia.

Sam Hawley: Worth noting also, Emma, that the Australian government puts politicians into ambassadorships. It's not a universal thing that's done. Quite often it's a diplomat that goes into those positions. But Australia has this tendency to put former politicians into those jobs.

Emma Shortis: That's absolutely right. And they are often seen as a reward, you know, for service to a political party or, you know, sometimes really to get rid of someone, to send them overseas and hope that they'll be quiet. It is, I think, often quite a risky prospect, especially with relationships that are difficult to manage when you aren't putting career diplomats, experienced diplomats in those positions. Having said that, Rudd is a little bit different, of course, because he was a diplomat originally and foreign minister and so has significant experience in diplomacy. But, you know, of course, he was a Labor prime minister. And so working across the aisle, so to speak, with extremely conservative Americans may be more difficult for him going forward.

Sam Hawley: So last time Donald Trump was in power, he got along famously with Joe Hockey. And of course, he also liked Scott Morrison.

Donald Trump, former US president: He believes a lot of the same things I believe. I guess that helps.

Donald Trump, former US president: He's a man of titanium. Believe me, I have to deal with this guy. He's not easy. You might think he's a nice guy, OK? He's a man of real, real strength and a great guy.

Sam Hawley: He liked that government.

Emma Shortis: Absolutely. And I think, you know, reflecting on that relationship where we're often kind of told that closeness was pragmatic. You know, it was necessary to maintain Australia's security relationship with the United States. But it was absolutely ideological. And we've seen that just recently when former Prime Minister Scott Morrison has announced that he's writing a book particularly about religion and faith with a foreword by former Vice President Mike Pence. So that ideological closeness, I think, was really, really significant.

Sam Hawley: So as Trump works to return to the White House, and the polling is showing he could very well do that, we of course have a Labor government in place now. And we can see by his comments about Kevin Rudd, that this relationship could be tricky, could be difficult.

Emma Shortis: It absolutely could. And again, to go back to what I was saying earlier, I think it should be difficult. You know, it should be difficult to deal with somebody like Trump, who's mused quite openly about suspending the US Constitution and is using openly fascist language. It would be, I think, a very bad reflection on Australia if that was an easy relationship to manage. That's not to say it can't be managed or that it shouldn't be managed. You know, Australia maintains relationships with countries with vastly different value systems to our own. That's really important to diplomacy. But I think we have an opportunity now to really consider what our relationship with a second Trump administration would look like and how we should manage that. And I think we need to do that sooner rather than later.

Sam Hawley: So Emma, let's look now more deeply at what a Trump return means for our place in the world. You've got Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States in this big security pact called AUKUS. It's meant to help assure Australia's security and get us nuclear-powered submarines, of course. But can that pact survive under Donald Trump if he returns to the presidency?

Emma Shortis: It remains an open question. You know, Trump is so unpredictable and it really depends who the last person is who speaks to him about this deal and how they frame it. That will shape, I think, how he responds, you know, whether it's framed as a risk to American security, you know, giving away American submarines when they should stay under an American command. Or whether it's presented as a win to him, you know, Australia effectively handing over $300 billion to the United States. I actually think there are much bigger questions around the AUKUS pact and whether it is good for Australia at all. And while the government in particular has been scrambling to get AUKUS locked down before the election, you know, just in case Trump does decide to torpedo it, I think the bigger question should be, you know, whether we even want to tie ourselves so closely to a United States, through AUKUS, that hypothetically is ruled over by somebody like Trump, who is an active threat, as I said, to our shared values. So I think the question shouldn't necessarily be, you know, will Trump let us keep AUKUS, but do we want to keep it under a United States ruled by Trump?

Sam Hawley: But the US, of course, is one of our strongest allies. Surely that strength remains regardless of if Trump comes back to power.

Emma Shortis: Look, I think certainly it can. The alliance has survived many different US administrations, many different Australian governments. But Trump is a whole different beast and American democracy at the moment is incredibly fragile. You know, I think our alliance could survive, but I think this is an opportunity, as I said, to really rethink what that alliance looks like and do things, for example, like instead of elevating that security relationship above all else, a security relationship that is often very actively anti-democratic, we should be working on building our democratic solidarity and connections with the United States through, for example, our relationships with the US Congress or even state level, state houses and state representatives and building up those diplomatic and cultural ties that are based in those shared values that we so often hear about, like democracy, for example, rather than that kind of singular security relationship that relies on Australia being close to, being incredibly close to and uniquely close to somebody like Donald Trump.

Sam Hawley: Well, I'm guessing right about now diplomats in Canberra will be pretty busy preparing and strategising over a potential Trump return. What do you think we should be doing to prepare for that possibility?

Emma Shortis: Look, I hope they are. I'm not all that convinced that the Australian government is really facing the possibility of a Trump return and what that might mean for Australia. I think one of the things that we should be doing certainly is exploring our options. You know, how far there is room to move in such a tight security relationship. But also, as I said, really working on Australia's diplomacy and elevating diplomacy and peace building above that defence relationship.

Sam Hawley: And you've got to tell me, Emma, if Trump wins, what next for Kevin Rudd?

Emma Shortis: Look, I mean, I certainly think there is a possibility that Trump will win outright. You know, the polls are looking pretty bad for Biden and there's a long way to go. I think there will certainly be a lot of pressure on Kevin Rudd should Trump return to the White House. But my hope is that the Australian government will be considered in its response and back Kevin Rudd and, you know, I think support him in his earlier assertions that Trump is a threat to democracy and stand up for Australian values in that regard. But I also wouldn't underestimate the significant pressure that a hypothetical second Trump administration could bring to bear on Australia.

Sam Hawley: Dr Emma Shortis is a senior researcher in international and security affairs at the Australia Institute. This episode was produced by Bridget Fitzgerald and Nell Whitehead. Audio production by Anna John. Our supervising producer is David Coady. I'm Sam Hawley. ABC News Daily will be back again tomorrow. Thanks for listening.