RBA set for another hold in key interest rate as inflation runs high

7 May 2024

FXStreet

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RBA set for another hold in key interest rate as inflation runs high

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce its decision on monetary policy early on Tuesday.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock is addressing the press conference following the May monetary policy announcement.

Bullock is taking questions from the press, as part of a new reporting format for the central bank.

At its May policy meeting, the RBA kept the policy rate unadjusted at 4.35% for the fourth meeting in a row. The central bank, however, remained non-committal on the next interest rate move.

RBA press conference key highlights

“We must be vigilant on inflation risks.”

“We believe rates are at the right level to get inflation back to target.”

“Data are proving bumpy, we are taking a longer view.”

“We want to keep employment growing, but there are risks.”

“We will adjust policy as needed.”

“ The government is conscious that the budget should not add to inflation pressures.”

“I don't think we necessarily have to tighten again.”

“We should not read too much into technical assumptions on rate forecasts."

“We have not explicitly said we might hike rates again.”

Economic Indicator

RBA Press Conference

Following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) economic policy decision, the Governor delivers a press conference explaining the monetary policy decision. The usual format is a roughly one-hour presser starting with prepared remarks and then opening to questions from the press. Hawkish comments tend to boost the Australian Dollar (AUD), while on the opposite, a dovish message tends to weaken it.

AUD/USD reaction to the RBA interest rate decision

The Australian Dollar faces some selling pressure in an immediate reaction to the RBA’s expected pause. The AUD/USD pair is losing 0.40% on the day to trade near 0.6600.

15-minutes chart

Australian Dollar price in the last 7 days

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies in the last 7 days. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.

	USD	EUR	GBP	CAD	AUD	JPY	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.48%	0.04%	0.08%	-0.66%	-1.20%	-0.64%	-0.41%
EUR	0.48%		0.52%	0.56%	-0.19%	-0.65%	-0.15%	0.07%
GBP	-0.04%	-0.53%		0.04%	-0.70%	-1.23%	-0.69%	-0.45%
CAD	-0.07%	-0.56%	-0.03%		-0.74%	-1.29%	-0.71%	-0.49%
AUD	0.67%	0.20%	0.72%	0.76%		-0.52%	0.03%	0.27%
JPY	1.19%	0.72%	1.23%	1.25%	0.52%		0.55%	0.76%
NZD	0.65%	0.15%	0.68%	0.71%	-0.02%	-0.56%		0.22%
CHF	0.41%	-0.08%	0.43%	0.48%	-0.26%	-0.75%	-0.25%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).

This section below was published on May 7 at 22:45 GMT as a preview of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy announcements.

Interest rate in Australia will likely stay unchanged at 4.35%.
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock to keep her options open.
Australian Dollar bullish case to be supported by a hawkish RBA.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce its decision on monetary policy early on Tuesday. Australian policymakers are widely anticipated to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.35%. In the March meeting, the RBA moved away from the tightening bias, scrapping references to potential rate hikes from the Board’s statement. As a result, the Australian Dollar (AUD) plummeted.

But much water has passed under the bridge since then. On the one hand, the Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.5% YoY in March, while on the other hand, the latest wage growth figure indicated persistent upward pressures. Wages increased 4.2% YoY in the last quarter of 2023.

Reserve Bank of Australia expected to remain on hold, but what else?

The RBA is not expected to change the OCR, but market players are concerned policymakers may reinstate the hawkish stance. The uptick in inflation, coupled with a persistently tight job market, spooks away any chance of a rate cut in the near term. In fact, speculative interest is more keen to bet on upcoming rate hikes before year-end than on a reduction of the interest rate benchmark. The idea seems quite logical as the RBA stalled rate hikes well below its main counterparts.

Ahead of the announcement, speculation mounts that Governor Michele Bullock and co. will opt out to reopen the door for additional tightening, with market participants increasingly beating on a rate hike in November 2024.

Governor Bullock noted in the press conference following the March decision that she wouldn’t rule anything in or out, adding that she needs to be confident that inflation is sustainably moving towards the central bank target range of 2%-3%. Indeed, she sounded confident back then, but the optimism diluted as macroeconomic data did not support the loosening case.

The CPI rose 1.0% in the first quarter of the year, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The same report showed that, over the twelve months to the March 2024 quarter, the CPI rose 3.6%, actually lower than the 4.1% annual rise in the previous quarter. It was the fifth consecutive quarter of lower annual inflation, although the trimmed mean annual inflation held at 4%, still above the RBA’s goal.

Furthermore, analysts at TD Securities noted that the latest employment data from Australia will not prompt the RBA to lower the policy rate anytime soon. "Australian headline employment fell 6.6k in March, softer than the +10k consensus and TD's +18k f/c. Given the significant increase in jobs posted in February, a much larger giveback could have happened, so the 6.6k drop is not too bad. Driving the negative print was the 34.5k drop in part-time, but full-time rose 27.9k (this is strong) while there were upward revisions to headline and full-time for February.”

Investors have spent most of this year betting on the dates major central banks will trim interest rates, pricing in sooner or later movements. However, that’s not the case in Australia, beyond the 30% odds a rate hike could come in November. Nothing, however, is priced in the country, and Tuesday’s announcement could put speculative interest in a certain path, spurring some aggressive price action around the AUD.

The RBA will include fresh economic forecasts. In February, the central bank was expecting trimmed mean inflation would decline to 3.1% by the end of 2024 and to 2.8% a year later. Inflation was then seen returning to the 2%-3% target by mid-2024. On growth, policymakers forecasted Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth will slow to 1.3% in the second quarter of the year and slowly pick up afterwards to reach 2.4% by mid-2026.

However, with hotter-than-anticipated inflation in the first quarter of the year, the RBA will likely review its inflation forecasts. Growth figures, on the contrary, will likely suffer minor revisions. Market players will pay more attention to the long-term projections and whether the June 2026 line is moved further away.

How will the RBA interest rate decision impact AUD/USD?

The AUD/USD pair trades above the 0.6600 mark ahead of the announcement, as the US Dollar suffers from a not-that-hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed). The US central bank has made it clear that interest rates will remain high for longer, although policymakers maintain the door open for rate cuts later this year.

Financial markets are optimistic despite global signs of stubbornly high inflation, while stock markets’ strength further underpins AUD/USD.

Valeria Bednarik, FXStreet Chief Analyst, says: “The AUD/USD pair will likely extend its rally, should the RBA deliver a hawkish message. Flipping back to potential rate hikes could be a nice catalyst for those looking to add longs. The pair has met sellers in the 0.6640 price zone in March and in the 0.6660 area in April, meaning large stops should accumulate above the latter. If those get triggered, a rally towards 0.6700 seems likely. The next resistance level is 0.6730, while the final target comes at 0.6770.”

Bednarik adds: “Speculative interest may be quite disappointed if the statement remains the same. AUD/USD could drop towards the 0.6560 price zone, while a break below the latter exposes the 0.6500 mark.”

Inflation FAQs

Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.

Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.

Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.

Economic Indicator

RBA Interest Rate Decision

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is usually bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Likewise, if the RBA has a dovish view on the Australian economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is seen as bearish for AUD.