Football tips, predictions and best bets: Champions League & Sky Bet Championship 05/03/24

Football betting tips: Tuesday best bets

2pts Kylian Mbappe to score anytime in Real Sociedad vs PSG at 6/4 (bet365)

2pts Over 2.5 goals in Ipswich vs Bristol City at 17/20 (bet365)

1pt Danilo Cataldi to be carded in Bayern Munich vs Lazio at 9/4 (Unibet)

1pt Ike Ugbo to score anytime in Sheff Wed vs Plymouth at 2/1 (bet365)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

Real Sociedad vs PSG (agg: 0-2)

James Cantrill

KYLIAN MBAPPE’s price TO SCORE ANYTIME looks huge.

The frontman has scored 50 goals in 49 appearances this term for club and country, 21 in Ligue 1 and four in the Champions League.

PSG are playing in Europe’s premier knockout competition on Tuesday, they head to Spain with a two goal lead over Real Sociedad and Mbappe got one of the goals in Paris.

It was the Frenchman’s 44th goal on the continent where he is posting a goals per 90 average of 0.73.

If anything, the dynamic of the second leg suits Mbappe more as his pace makes him lethal on the counter attack.

• PSG to win
• Kylian Mbappe to score 3+ goals
• Igor Zubeldia to be shown a card

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Igor Zubeldia has 13 bookings in 36 appearances for Sociedad and although he wasn't carded in the first leg, he committed more fouls (3) than tackles (2).

The central defender has picked up eight across four seasons and 24 starts in Europe and given what is at stake on Tuesday, he could well add to that tally.

Odds correct at 1400 GMT (04/03/24)

Bayern Munich vs Lazio (agg: 0-1)

Jake Osgathorpe

Bayern are out of sorts and desperate. Thomas Tuchel's side are 10 points behind Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga, and trail Lazio in this two-legged tie.

They really do have it all to do, and it could be argued that Lazio have them exactly where they want them, the Italians being able to sit in and counter with their scoring threat.

While Bayern's firepower does give them a good chance over overturning the deficit, their defensive performances have been incredibly bad of late. They have won just one of their last five, conceding 10 times in that time - enough of a concern to think Bayern to qualify is not a bet AT ALL around the 4/11 mark.

Instead, we pivot to the cards market, where Lazio holding midfielder DANILO CATALDI appeals at above 2/1 TO BE CARDED, the same bet is as short as 6/5 generally.

While Lazio avoided any cards in the first leg, we can expect them to be much more scrappy, happy to break the game up and make cynical fouls with qualification on the line.

Cataldi has been carded six times this season, which may not seem like a lot, but those cautions have come in just 1340 minutes of action - the equivalent of around 15 full matches. That gives him a cards per 90 average of 0.40, meaning the available price looks huge.

The referee for this game, Slavko Vincic, oversaw a Lazio group game, dishing out five yellows on that occasion, and has averaged 4.33 cards per game across the group stages, so looks a decent appointment here.

Matias Vecino could throw a spanner in the works, with his return to fitness potentially dislodging Cataldi at the base of midfield. He has picked up nine yellows in 1169 minutes of football this term - a cards per 90 average of 0.69 - so if Vecino is picked instead of Cataldi, back him at the same price.

Both could play if Maurizio Sarri wants a more defensive set-up, in which case backing both could be worth some shrapnel.

• Danilo Cataldi to be carded
• 50+ booking points
• Lazio to win the tie
• Danilo Cataldi to commit 2+ Fouls
• Harry Kane to score in 90 minutes

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Even the superhuman Harry Kane might not be enough to get struggling Bayern through here.

Expect this to be a scrappy affair.

Odds correct at 1645 GMT (04/03/24)

Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth

James Cantrill

IKE UGBO has hit the ground running at Hillsborough.

The frontman has started seven games for the Owls and scored six goals which includes four in his last three.

Having already netted four times for Cardiff, Ugbo has scored 10 Championship goals this term which translates to a goals per 90 average of 0.70. The 2/1 about him TO SCORE ANYTIME on Tuesday certainly appeals.

Wednesday host Plymouth in a crucial game at the foot of the second tier but with the visitors shipping the third most goals in the league (59) it does not promise to be cagey.

Odds correct at 1520 GMT (04/03/24)

Ipswich vs Bristol City

James Cantrill

In 17 games Ipswich have played at Portman Road in the Sky Bet Championship, 14 have seen OVER 2.5 GOALS click.

The Tractor Boys have netted 44 times and shipped 27 goals on their own turf which is an average of 4.2 goals a game.

Since the turn of the year, each of the five games at Portman Road has seen at least three goals with 12 scored and nine conceded.

Bristol City have only kept three clean sheets on the road all season and this bet has landed in each of their last three away games.

Prior to Kieffer Moore's arrival, Ipswich had won only one of their previous seven league games. With him in their XI they are unbeaten, have won six of seven and he has scored five times.

Jack Taylor should start for the hosts in Lewis Travis’ absence. Taylor has played a bit-part role this term but has two cards from only six starts.

Odds correct at 1000 GMT (05/03/24)

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