UFC Fight Night Expert picks, best bets for Cejudo vs. Song ESPN

Former UFC double champion Henry Cejudo makes his first Octagon appearance in a year at UFC Fight Night, taking on rising bantamweight contender Song Yadong in the main event at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle on Saturday night (9 p.m. on ESPN+, with prelims at 6 p.m. on ESPN+).

Cejudo, No. 6 in ESPN's divisional rankings, looks to get back into title contention and end a two-fight skid following losses to former champion Aljamain Sterling in May 2023 and current champion Merab Dvalishvili last February. Song, unranked by ESPN, also enters the fight following a loss. Petr Yan, another former champion, beat Song by unanimous decision at UFC 299 last March.

Brett Okamoto spoke to Factory X MMA coach Marc Montoya to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets he likes on the card.

Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.

Men's bantamweight: Henry Cejudo vs. Song Yadong

Marc Montoya, Factory X MMA coach

How Cejudo wins: If a younger guy such as Song does show too much respect to Cejudo, he could allow Cejudo to build momentum. Song is super fast, both defensively and offensively. And we all know that fighters older than 35 years old haven't fared well when facing younger opponents, especially in the lower weight classes. Cejudo's wrestling will always be his best advantage. But can he even get to Song with the younger fighter's speed? And if Cejudo can get him down, he's not a big submission guy, so he'd have to control Song on the mat and try to land shots from top position. His cardio needs to be there, and he needs to use that experience and fight IQ to get to his wrestling.

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How Song wins: He has to remove the face and name of his opponent. Pretend it's just a body in front of him and run right through it. Cejudo has accomplished some amazing things, but his run of beating Demetrious Johnson and TJ Dillashaw was five years ago. And his run in the Olympics was well beyond that. I think the coaches will remind him to be a savage and not think about the name he's facing. Also, against a wrestler, it's important to target that low calf kick and punches to the body.

X factor: I haven't seen a solid reason for why Cejudo took this fight. Did he see a hole in Song's game that he hopes to take advantage of? If he doesn't have a good reason, that could show.

Prediction: Song to win. And if there is a finish, I'll say it happens in the later rounds.

Betting analysis

Odds accurate as of publication. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.

Parker: Song to win (-280) and over 2.5 rounds. Song is the favorite, but the odds are pretty high, considering he's coming off a loss. However, it makes sense given Cejudo's lack of success since returning from retirement two years ago. Cejudo has to establish his wrestling early in the fight and control Song for all five rounds on the mat to have a chance at winning. If he can't successfully do that, he is going to get picked apart on the feet and it's going to get ugly as the fight goes on. Song will be able to successfully defend the early takedown attempts and outstrike his way to victory. To lower the odds to a much more manageable number, let's take Song to win and over 2.5 rounds.

Parker's best bets on the rest of the card

Middleweight: Brendan Allen vs. Anthony Hernandez

Hernandez to win by decision. There might not be another UFC fighter flying under the radar like Hernandez. Since his last loss to Kevin Holland in 2020, Hernandez is riding a six-fight winning streak with five of those wins by finish.

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Hernandez has transformed himself into a true sleeper in the middleweight division with his menacing pace and pressure. His opponents crumble as the fight goes on. Allen is a good striker, but he truly shines on the mat, where he can dictate the narrative of the fight with his jiu-jitsu.

If this was a five-round fight, my pick would be Hernandez to win inside the distance. Hernandez's pressure and pace would likely be too much for Allen to handle for 25 minutes, and Allen tends to fade in the later rounds of a five-round fight. However, I think Allen can survive and get to the final bell vs. Hernandez in a three-round fight. If you are taking Hernandez, add him to the parlay and don't take the risk on the money line. If you want to lower the line, take Hernandez to win by decision.

Catchweight: Rob Font vs. Jean Matsumoto

Font to win (+130). Originally slated to fight Dominick Cruz in Cruz's retirement fight, Font now takes on late a replacement in Matsumoto. Matsumoto, who has won two UFC fights since earning a contract on "Dana White's Contender Series" in 2023, now steps up on short notice to take on his stiffest test to date. Surprisingly, Matsumoto is the betting favorite. Although Matsumoto is 16-0 and a talented prospect, this is wild to me. This is a huge step up in competition for the prospect on short notice, so I will take the well-rounded vet in Font at plus money.

Not only has Font fought the division's best, but he has shown that he belongs among the elite bantamweight fighters and is nearly impossible to finish. On top of that, Font is coming off a huge win over another blue-chip prospect in Kyler Phillips. If Font can keep this fight on the feet, he wins plain and simple.

Featherweight: Jean Silva vs. Melsik Baghdasaryan

Over 2.5 rounds (+105). Silva is quickly becoming a fan favorite because of his fun, action-packed fighting style. Riding an impressive three-fight winning streak, he now takes on an underrated and dangerous fighter. Baghdasaryan has all the tools to make this a fun standup fight. While Silva has a knack for knocking out opponents, Baghdasaryan might be the better striker. If he can avoid the KO shot of Silva, we might be in for a three-round banger. I believe this fight will go over 2.5 rounds, and at plus-money odds, that's how I am playing it.